Another 300,000 people in an average month will likely lose benefits starting in 2028, as lawmakers shift SNAP benefit costs onto some states, but the CBO indicated those numbers depend on a lot of variables. “CBO expects that there will be a variety of state responses to the new requirement,” analysts wrote. “Some states will maintain current benefits and eligibility; others will modify benefits or eligibility or leave the program altogether.”

Because SNAP eligibility is tied to other student benefits, including school and summer meals, the CBO estimates subsidies for child nutrition programs will also decrease for about 96,000 children in an average month.

Finally, the new law mandates that updates to the package that underlies SNAP benefits cannot raise costs, which will lead to lower average monthly benefits. By 2034, average benefits will be $213 per month, instead of the previously predicted $227 per month.

The combination of SNAP and Medicaid cuts in the bill means that the poorest American families will see a decrease of about $1,200 per year, even as most American households will see an increase in income due to tax cuts, the agency also reported. Households in the top income bracket will see an increase of about $13,600 per year. (Link to this post.)