Fertilizer imports:  According to trade group The Fertilizer Institute (TFI), 85 percent of the mineral fertilizer potash used by American farmers comes from Canada; our northern neighbor also provides a quarter of farmers’ nitrogen needs. In a statement, TFI asked the administration to consider exempting fertilizers from the Canadian tariffs. “A stable and affordable supply of fertilizers is critical to maintaining the global competitiveness of U.S. farmers, strengthening rural economies, and keeping food prices in check,” said CEO Corey Rosenbusch.

Agricultural exports: China is the biggest export market for American farmers. In response to Trump’s tariffs, the country announced it will reciprocate with 15 percent tariffs on American food and agricultural products including soybeans, meat, and chicken. Mexico and Canada are also promising retaliation, which could impact exports of American wine and beer, grains, and meat. During Trump’s first term, tariffs caused economic losses in farm country and the USDA paid farmers tens of billions of dollars to make up for it. Secretary Rollins has said the agency is prepared to do that again.

Food imports and prices: Beyond farmers, economists say everyday Americans should expect higher food prices. That’s because the U.S. imports about $200 billion in food, beverages, and animal feed from the three countries, especially fruits and vegetables from Mexico and animal feed, grains, and meat from Canada. In the past, importers have passed the cost of tariffs on to consumers. Specialty items like avocados and tequila from Mexico and maple syrup from Canada may be harder to find, and major food distributors are already scrambling to figure out what to do.

Still, a lot remains unknown, since Trump uses tariffs as a bargaining tool and has already demonstrated an openness to adjusting them as countries respond. (Link to this post.)